Despite being largely content with this morning's job report from the DOL, I must say that the Bureau of Labor Statistics' so-called "seasonal adjustments" neglect the highly cyclical couriers and messengers category from their data modification, a category responsible for the majority of December's gain at +42,000 jobs. If couriers and messengers do in fact "move and distribute documents and packages for individuals, businesses, institutions, and government agencies" (as defined in the BLS occupational outlook handbook), then clearly these jobs are significantly impacted by seasonal factors. I don't even need to post an article, graph, or chart to back up this statement--as it requires only common sense to realize that a greater number of packages are shipped in December (due to the holidays) than in any other month--but I will nonetheless.
Thanks to CS chief economist Dr. Neal Soss for noting this peculiarity on today's monthly credit strategy call. Also, see Bob Willis' article just posted on Bloomberg.
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