A 2011 realization: The point at which a task is contextually the most difficult to accomplish is the point where its completion matters most.
A simple example involves a fitness regimen. Of course, there are days where one may be travelling, with limited time to run; where one may be stressed, with little motivation. These types of days will occur, but if the goal (there must be a goal) is to run six out of every seven days, the "difficult" days are by far the most critical. Specifically, if one can uphold his commitment through these abnormal yet inevitable scenarios, "normal" days will be psychologically bolstered. Conversely, if one allows an unexpected event to break his routine, the routine's foundation gradually crumbles. Traveling? Wake up an hour earlier. Stressed? Remember, fighting the headwinds and completing the task will ultimately clear one's mind. Replace traveling and stressed with x and y, and the same lesson applies.
Friday, December 30, 2011
"Gold Price" + VIX Correlation
Fascinating chart from The Economist:
Google query data is more pertinent and powerful than one might think.
Google query data is more pertinent and powerful than one might think.
Friday, December 23, 2011
Tax Relief?
The House and Senate have finally agreed to a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut, equating to a $33b total package. While this is slightly positive news for 160 million American workers, many do not realize (or simply ignore) how the cut is funded. As simply stated in today's Wall Street Journal, "the bill's $33 billion cost is expected to be covered by an increase in fees charged to mortgage lenders by government housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac...the fee increase, expected to raise about $35.7 billion in revenue over 10 years, likely would be passed on to new-home buyers, raising their monthly mortgage payments by as much as $15 on mortgages of $210,000." Suddenly, it seems as if the tax cut isn't so beneficial. Of course, one could argue that the sample sets of those in need of tax relief and those seeking reasonable mortgage financing are somewhat exclusive, but such a dichotomy is difficult to define.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
LTRO
On its face, the ECB's Long-Term Refinance Operation (LTRO) seems to be a blessing for troubled Eurozone financial institutions, especially when used in conjunction with the classic "carry trade" concept. At a high level, the banks would have access to cheap liquidity (borrowing at the 1% benchmark rate), which, in turn, would be used to purchase higher-yielding sovereign debt (anywhere between 500-700bps for Spain and Italy based on recent levels). Not only would the banks pocket the delta (approximately 400bps) as profit, but also the peripheral nations would benefit from increased demand at sovereign auctions. In addition, the sovereign bonds could be used as collateral for access to the ECB's cheap lending facility, thereby reinforcing the positive feedback loop.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Religious Liberty?
Today's New York Times highlights the efforts of many of America's Catholic bishops to fight for their "religious liberty." In doing so, Archbishop Timothy Dolan accuses our culture of trying to "neuter" religion, by pushing "religion back into the sacristy."
It is no secret that the Modern philosophers as far back as Hobbes and Locke viewed dampening religious zeal and removing it from the public realm as a cornerstone of their cultural project. But I place much of the blame on 21st century America's resistance to organized religion on people like Dolan, whose resistance to gay rights and other social issues places them at odds with modernity.
The head of the Bishop's committee on religious liberty, William Lori, exhorted his flock to stand up for the rights of their religion -- most notably, the right to deny gay couples their right to adopt children. In fact, Lori claims that laws which make it illegal for state funded adoption agencies to deny gay parents adoption rights infringes on their religious liberty, and forces Catholic agencies into insolvency. Apparently, these agencies would rather help no one, and let scores of children remain in foster care, than to let gay couples adopt them.
Focusing on issues like gay adoption not only shows overt prejudice but also demonstrates seriously twisted priorities. In the words of the liberal Catholic, John Gehring, "The bishops speak in hushed tones when it comes to poverty and economic justice issues, and use a big megaphone when it comes to abortion and religious liberty issues."
When unemployment remains above 9 percent and with poverty rates at tragically high levels, how can anyone take seriously people who claim that the real ills our country face result from gays being allowed to adopt. These skewed priorities are what is moving religion back into the sacristy, as the Bishops' concerns become less relevant to everyday people.
So the next time Dolan and Lori claim to be victims of progressive culture, they shouldn't blame others. Instead of looking to the left for reasons why religion is becoming irrelevant to many Americans, they should stare straight ahead into a mirror.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
The Unjustified Deification of Paterno
Comparisons between the Penn State and Catholic Church sexual abuse scandals are right on point. But the analogy extends beyond the nature of the crime. Fans treat sports like religion, and deify those who participate in them. Saturday and Sunday are no longer Sabbath days, but are days to watch college and pro football for millions of Americans.
The fan's reverence of sport - and of those who play on and coach their team - is no more evident than in the responses of the Penn State student body who came out in droves after their canonized coach was fired. Paterno had been deified by the PSU faithful for decades, and, in their eyes, could do no wrong. Rather than confronting the uncomfortable, yet undeniable reality, the student body averted their collective consciousness. Instead, they decided to sink back into the comforts of their delusion, blaming the media, the Board of Directors, and anyone else who attempted to elucidate the truth - that all men, even ones as revered as Paterno, are fallible.
More from Governor Gaffe Machine
In owning up to his epic gaffe last night at the Republican debate, Rick Perry claims that "I'm kind of proof positive that...people make mistakes when they make statements" Governor Perry proved his point in the very next sentence by stating that his "conservative beliefs about getting this country back on track are very deep founded." Deeply founded, anyone?
I guess, along with which agencies he wants to demolish, Perry has forgotten what most English speaking people in America over the age of 13 should know-- the difference between adverbs and adjectives. No wonder the Department of Education is on the Perry's chopping block.
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